Today's Air Quality is forecasted to be moderate (score of 90 - see past blog for descriptions). Looking at Florence County's track record for air quality, I was under the impression that the area's air quality is improving. However, on a national scale, a recent post on the Federal Highway's "It all adds up to cleaner air" forum included the following article by Saqib Rahim (6/25/08), a reporter for ClimateWire, about a recent study that gives me pause. A question about the first statement - what is your answer?:
First, the bad news: Even the toughest policies in the transportation sector, a new study finds, won't keep vehicle-related emissions from growing.
But the good news, says the report from Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government, is that a suite of policies can at least slow that growth.Reform has been slow to come to the American transportation sector, which has taken center stage in the public reaction to gas prices and global warming.
Reluctant U.S. automakers are showing signs of relenting, switching their efforts to smaller cars and alternative fuels. Recent rises in the price of oil have also driven scores of Americans to take public transit. The federal government has pitched in, raising fuel-economy standards and promoting ethanol.
But even as anti-gas-guzzler sentiments begin to warm, policymakers face a stark history: Transportation accounts for roughly a third of the country's emissions. And with each passing year, Americans are driving more and more. According to the Urban Land Insitute, total vehicle miles traveled have nearly doubled since 1980.
That has left policymakers in a pickle, the report says. Even if oil prices stay high, technologies improve dramatically and the government sets up policies to curb oil use, emissions and oil imports are still likely to rise.
Using an Energy Department model, the report projects what would happen to total transportation, oil use and emissions under different policy scenarios, such as an economy-wide carbon tax, stronger fuel-economy standards or other auto-related taxes. The model also accounts for other variables, such as oil prices, technology development and consumer choice.
In all cases, the report says, a major obstacle to reducing emissions and oil use is that Americans are likely to drive even more in the future. Without any policy action, the report predicts, vehicle miles traveled would increase more than 50 percent between 2010 and 2030.
While none of the policies is a "silver bullet" that could achieve all goals at once, the report finds that multiple policies could reduce emissions below the business-as-usual scenario -- one in which the present situation stays the same. In particular, the report says, an economy-wide tax on CO2 (or an equivalent cap-and-trade regime) plus a tightening fuel-economy standard would slow growth in emissions from transportation.
Revised thinking: '25 by '25' is very hard to do.
Meanwhile, another study is questioning a popular benchmark for reducing emissions and strengthening energy security.
The target, known as "25 by '25", aims to source 25 percent of electricity and transportation fuels in America from renewable fuels by 2025.But current technology is not on pace to achieve that benchmark, says the RAND Corp. report by Michael Toman.
If that goal is to be achieved, the report says, researchers must focus on producing a large feedstock of biomass, since it is the least expensive alternative today and can be grown plentifully in the United States.But it may be cheaper to reduce emissions using energy efficiency and subsidies in addition to renewables, the report suggests.
No comments:
Post a Comment