Americans will drive more, regardless of regulations and fuel prices

Today's Air Quality is forecasted to be moderate (score of 90 - see past blog for descriptions). Looking at Florence County's track record for air quality, I was under the impression that the area's air quality is improving. However, on a national scale, a recent post on the Federal Highway's "It all adds up to cleaner air" forum included the following article by Saqib Rahim (6/25/08), a reporter for ClimateWire, about a recent study that gives me pause. A question about the first statement - what is your answer?:

First, the bad news: Even the toughest policies in the transportation sector, a new study finds, won't keep vehicle-related emissions from growing.

But the good news, says the report from Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government, is that a suite of policies can at least slow that growth.Reform has been slow to come to the American transportation sector, which has taken center stage in the public reaction to gas prices and global warming.

Reluctant U.S. automakers are showing signs of relenting, switching their efforts to smaller cars and alternative fuels. Recent rises in the price of oil have also driven scores of Americans to take public transit. The federal government has pitched in, raising fuel-economy standards and promoting ethanol.

But even as anti-gas-guzzler sentiments begin to warm, policymakers face a stark history: Transportation accounts for roughly a third of the country's emissions. And with each passing year, Americans are driving more and more. According to the Urban Land Insitute, total vehicle miles traveled have nearly doubled since 1980.

That has left policymakers in a pickle, the report says. Even if oil prices stay high, technologies improve dramatically and the government sets up policies to curb oil use, emissions and oil imports are still likely to rise.

Using an Energy Department model, the report projects what would happen to total transportation, oil use and emissions under different policy scenarios, such as an economy-wide carbon tax, stronger fuel-economy standards or other auto-related taxes. The model also accounts for other variables, such as oil prices, technology development and consumer choice.

In all cases, the report says, a major obstacle to reducing emissions and oil use is that Americans are likely to drive even more in the future. Without any policy action, the report predicts, vehicle miles traveled would increase more than 50 percent between 2010 and 2030.

While none of the policies is a "silver bullet" that could achieve all goals at once, the report finds that multiple policies could reduce emissions below the business-as-usual scenario -- one in which the present situation stays the same. In particular, the report says, an economy-wide tax on CO2 (or an equivalent cap-and-trade regime) plus a tightening fuel-economy standard would slow growth in emissions from transportation.

Revised thinking: '25 by '25' is very hard to do.

Meanwhile, another study is questioning a popular benchmark for reducing emissions and strengthening energy security.

The target, known as "25 by '25", aims to source 25 percent of electricity and transportation fuels in America from renewable fuels by 2025.But current technology is not on pace to achieve that benchmark, says the RAND Corp. report by Michael Toman.

If that goal is to be achieved, the report says, researchers must focus on producing a large feedstock of biomass, since it is the least expensive alternative today and can be grown plentifully in the United States.But it may be cheaper to reduce emissions using energy efficiency and subsidies in addition to renewables, the report suggests.

Air Quality | Moderate today

Wednesday, June 25, 2008: Moderate Ozone (67)
***OZONE ACTION DAY for the Upstate on 25 June 2008*** The air mass over South Carolina will be quite dry as surface high pressure over the Appalachians will build into the region, giving us abundant sunshine. Winds will shift from a northerly to a southerly component during the day. This recirculation of the winds will keep ozone pollution in the area. Therefore, an Orange forecast is being issued for the Upstate. Elsewhere, the Trident zone will be in the Green category, while the other remaining zones will be in the Yellow category.

Today’s Share the Air philosophy:
Check out the wide range of ‘green’ blogs on the web (shown in the blog list at the right). These sites focus on the latest trends and perspectives in green topics such as LEED certified building and air quality. The following is a list of blogs you may find interesting and want to visit occasionally:
· Greenversations: EPA’s blog (http://blog.epa.gov/blog/)
· Bike Greenville: http://bikegreenville.blogspot.com/

The general descriptions of ozone, air quality index levels and potential risks to special population groups are explained below:

Good (1-50)
No health impacts are expected when air quality is in this range.
Moderate (51-100)
Unusually sensitive people should consider limiting prolonged outdoor exertion.
Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (101-150)
Active children and adults, and people with respiratory disease, such as asthma, should limit prolonged outdoor exertion.
Unhealthy (151-200)
Active children and adults, and people with respiratory disease, such as asthma, should avoid prolonged outdoor exertion; everyone else, especially children, should limit prolonged outdoor exertion.
Very Unhealthy (201-300)
Active children and adults, and people with respiratory disease, such as asthma, should avoid all outdoor exertion; everyone else, especially children, should limit outdoor exertion.

Air Quality | not too shabby?

“An air quality score of 90 is unacceptable.” That would be what our grade school teachers would be saying if air quality was on a test. On a more serious note, though, check out the attention that air quality is getting in the news lately:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/04/30/AR2008043003396.html

We can say “at least we’re not that bad” or we can look at examples of areas with better air quality for something to aspire to. The following link shows where U.S. locations rank in air quality:
http://www.lungusa.org/site/c.dvLUK9O0E/b.50752/k.D532/Rankings.htm

Mercer Human Resources Consulting reviewed more than 300 cities around the world. The following list of cities is their top 25 of the world's cleanest. Many similar attributes characterize these locations such as a focus on high tech, education and headquartering of national and international companies along with an extensive public transit system.

Calgary, Canada
Honolulu, Hawaii
Helsinki, Finland
Ottowa, Canada
Minneapolis, MN
Oslo, Norway
Stockholm, Sweden
Zurich, Switzerland
Katsuyama, Japan - new City, 26,000 pop
Bern, Switzerland - 127,000 pop
Montreal, Canada
Vancouver, Canada
Boston, Mass
Lexington, KY
Pittsburgh, PN
Nurnberg, Germany
Geneva, Switzerland
Auckland, New Zealand
Wellington, New Zealand -179,000 pop
Dublin, Ireland
Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Toronto, Canada
Lyon, France
Copenhagen, Denmark
Kobe, Japan
Omuta, Japan

Katsuyama, Bern and Wellington all have populations about the size of Florence County compressed into an area the size of the City of Florence. However, their mentioned strengths (high-tech industry, education, international corporations and diversity of transportation options) are important in every city across the globe. These highlighted examples may serve as a focus for improvements in Florence County systems.

What's Under Your Staircase?

Okay, well maybe it's not an ideal setup, but it's convenient and offers passersby an advertisement of alternative transportation.

It's the stairwell of our new building and it displays to South Irby Street like a Cartier storefront. A perfect advertisement of bucking the $4+ price per gallon of an excuse not to get outside.

Currently, the new office location has afforded two bicycling commuters this opportunity and we are looking to learn about others around the County that have decided to buck the trend and mount the two wheel option.

Will you be the next two wheeler located under the staircase?

Planning This Week | June 9th, 2008

After two days of packing, pushing and plugging back in, we are finally at our new home. We are now located next to the Drs. Bruce and Lee Library (Florence County main library) at 518 South Irby Street. We are now open with regular work hours.

Comprehensive Plan - We continue to make the necessary edits to the Economic Element for initial presentation to the Planning Commission this month. The full document will be presented to the body on their July agenda. The Land Use and Community Facilities elements are well under way.

FLATS - Tranportation planning activities this week are centered around the upcoming Study Team meeting this Friday. We will be discussing the City of Florence's Enhancement grant application, a request for qualifications for a consultant to help with the area's long range plan, the next FLATS road project, the public participation plan and other operational items such as the calendar, the public advisory group formation (want to join?) and election of Policy Committee Chair and Vice-Chair.

Air Quality - The air quality for this week will mostly be in the 'moderate' category. The Tree Preservation ordinance continues to mature in technical meetings. Our next meeting will discuss more specific information about tree densities, caliper and specific species protection. Look for public meetings about the ordinance late this summer.

Planning This Week | June 3, 2008

Comprehensive Plan - Staff will be traveling to the City of Olanta for their Council meeting tonight. The Housing Element of the County's Comprehensive Plan is being presented for its first reading. The meeting starts at 6:00PM.

Both the Land Use and Community Facilities elements are being started. The Land Use Element will include local workshops throughout the County. Look for scheduling to be displayed here and at www.florenceco.org/planning.

Transportation - The Florence Area Transportation Study (FLATS) will be holding a Study Team meeting next Friday (June 13) at 10:30AM. We will discuss and make a recommendation the following items for the Policy Committee (to meet June 26th): new enhancement project for Downtown Gateway, a request for qualifications for the FLATS Long-Range Plan and Transportation Element of the Comprehensive Plan, Public Participation Plan, Transportation Conformity (for Air Quality) MOA with State and Federal partners, FY 2009 calendar

Air Quality - Our air quality has been flucuating between good and moderate in the past week. Strong spring and summer sunshine and temperatures mixed with exhaust from vehicles and manufacturing make for increased ground-level ozone. As the hotter season approaches, being prepared to limit driving time and exposure to the outdoors during extreme air quality events is recommended. If you would like to receive an e-mail detailing an air quality forecast, feel free to e-mail Scott Park at spark@florenceco.org.

We are working hard to find ways to increase the County's air quality. It is the goal of this blog, as well as the County planning website (www.florenceco.org/planning) to include information about upcoming proposed projects and ordinances.

Tree Preservation = Stormwater Protection

Planning Services had a good field trip to Sumter County on Friday. We (including a SC Forestry representative) met up with Sumter County Planning and a local developer to look at a few projects that incorporated tree preservation and low impact development techniques. Both methods proved to address air and stormwater quality concerns associated with the development and long-term outlook.

These photos offer a look at the potential of deep sandy soils (live oak in the center median), the challenges of stormwater retention during construction (wire enforced silt fencing) and the tool in brush clearing (bobcat with rotating chopper).

Our goal is to integrate tree preservation activities that will both increase air and water quality while creating an environment that benefits developers and the quality of life for residents and businesses.